Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on November 5?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $351 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$350.54

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 99.9¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$350.54

Total Shares352

Combined PnL+$8

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$70.9	$70.73	-$0.17	41% 1152-1658 (2810)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$68.19	$67.42	-$0.77	39% 1099-1727 (2826)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$34.98	$35.14	+$0.16	55% 4491-3700 (8191)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$26.73	$26.7	-$0.03	41% 2318-3356 (5674)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$57.17	$22.35	+$2.8	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.95	$19.96	+$0.01	31% 2671-5963 (8634)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.95	$19.96	+$0.01	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88¢	$20	$19.69	+$2.09	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$15.79	$15.63	-$0.16	41% 1223-1782 (3005)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$15.4	$15.34	-$0.06	42% 1221-1710 (2931)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$51.53	$12.74	+$4.2	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.49	$12.47	-$0.02	—
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$7.34	$7.3	-$0.04	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.13	$5.12	-$0.01	47% 2253-2525 (4778)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$70.9

Value

$70.73

PnL

-$0.17

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$68.19

Value

$67.42

PnL

-$0.77

Record

39%

1099-1727 (2826)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$34.98

Value

$35.14

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

4491-3700 (8191)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$26.73

Value

$26.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

2318-3356 (5674)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$57.17

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$2.8

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$19.95

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

2671-5963 (8634)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.95

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.69

PnL

+$2.09

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$15.79

Value

$15.63

PnL

-$0.16

Record

41%

1223-1782 (3005)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$15.4

Value

$15.34

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

1221-1710 (2931)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$51.53

Value

$12.74

PnL

+$4.2

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.49

Value

$12.47

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.34

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

2253-2525 (4778)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.