Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on November 3?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 61¢ · $256 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$255.54
$10.83
74.3¢ → 60.5¢
-19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 77.3¢ | $144.72 | $141 | -$2.16 | 16% 410-2142 (2552) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $65.54 | $64.14 | -$1.4 | 52% 8707-7951 (16658) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $7.39 | $43.37 | +$11.16 | 53% 3422-3054 (6476) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $3.15 | -$0.05 | 79% 10865-2930 (13795) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.1¢ | $6.66 | $2.89 | +$3.2 | 57% 17499-13064 (30563) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $0.9 | $0.98 | +$0.08 | 40% 5204-7877 (13081) |
IstarothInvested
$144.72
Value
$141
PnL
-$2.16
Record
16%
410-2142 (2552)
Invested
$65.54
Value
$64.14
PnL
-$1.4
Record
52%
8707-7951 (16658)
Invested
$7.39
Value
$43.37
PnL
+$11.16
Record
53%
3422-3054 (6476)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$0.05
Record
79%
10865-2930 (13795)
Invested
$6.66
Value
$2.89
PnL
+$3.2
Record
57%
17499-13064 (30563)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.98
PnL
+$0.08
Record
40%
5204-7877 (13081)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.