Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on November 3?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $352 held · ended Nov 3

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$351.54

Combined PnL

$139.32

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$349.92

Total Shares351

Combined PnL+$229.41

No2 traders

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$90.09

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 24.4¢	$61.17	$250.51	+$152.17	44% 754-963 (1717)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.17	$99.41	+$77.25	48% 2103-2279 (4382)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$50.15	$0.09	-$50.06	53% 9512-8365 (17877)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$40.26	$0.06	-$40.03	16% 427-2295 (2722)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$61.17

Value

$250.51

PnL

+$152.17

Record

44%

754-963 (1717)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.17

Value

$99.41

PnL

+$77.25

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$50.15

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$50.06

Record

53%

9512-8365 (17877)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$40.26

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$40.03

Record

16%

427-2295 (2722)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.