Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 16?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $111 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$110.55

Combined PnL

-$1.27

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$109.98

Total Shares111

Combined PnL-$1.28

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.08

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.01

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$20.81	$20.76	-$0.05	58% 872-632 (1504)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$18.35	$18.31	-$0.04	49% 868-890 (1758)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$17.36	$17.32	-$0.04	60% 888-604 (1492)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$15.6	$15.55	-$0.05	26% 605-1747 (2352)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.97	+$0.01	42% 1702-2333 (4035)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.1	$9.07	-$0.04	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$20.79	$8.81	-$1.07	35% 3914-7277 (11191)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.12	$5.13	+$0.01	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.07	$5.06	-$0.02	50% 932-930 (1862)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.04	$0.05	+$0.01	57% 851-641 (1492)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0	52% 959-896 (1855)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	52% 923-846 (1769)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$20.81

Value

$20.76

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$18.35

Value

$18.31

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$17.36

Value

$17.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

26%

605-1747 (2352)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

1702-2333 (4035)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$20.79

Value

$8.81

PnL

-$1.07

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.