Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on November 16?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 97¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$102

Combined PnL

-$1.38

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 96.8¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$101.14

Total Shares103

Combined PnL-$1.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.39

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$0.05

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$27.12	$26.93	-$0.19	57% 851-641 (1492)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97¢	$15.55	$15.59	+$0.04	52% 923-846 (1769)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 98¢	$15.35	$15.26	-$0.09	26% 605-1747 (2352)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$11.99	$11.94	-$0.05	52% 959-896 (1855)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$10.19	$10.1	-$0.09	58% 872-632 (1504)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$20.41	$8.64	-$0.85	35% 3914-7277 (11191)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 98¢	$7.66	$7.62	-$0.04	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.12	$5.05	-$0.06	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.25	$0.22	-$0.03	49% 868-890 (1758)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.16	$0.14	-$0.02	50% 932-930 (1862)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.03	$0.03	-$0	60% 888-604 (1492)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$27.12

Value

$26.93

PnL

-$0.19

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.55

Value

$15.59

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$15.26

PnL

-$0.09

Record

26%

605-1747 (2352)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.99

Value

$11.94

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.19

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$20.41

Value

$8.64

PnL

-$0.85

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$7.66

Value

$7.62

PnL

-$0.04

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.