Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on November 16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 81¢ · $124 held · ends Nov 16

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$123.58

Combined PnL

-$6.21

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$97.45

Total Shares120

Combined PnL+$1.82

Yes2 traders

Total Value$26.13

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$8.03

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 77¢	$30.89	$32.3	+$1.4	57% 851-641 (1492)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$26.3	$25.9	-$0.4	71% 954-392 (1346)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$32.8	$25.06	-$7.73	42% 808-1111 (1919)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$12.08	$12.68	+$0.6	49% 868-890 (1758)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$9.31	$9.18	-$0.13	52% 959-896 (1855)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.1	$7.4	+$0.3	31% 1127-2476 (3603)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 77¢	$5.08	$5.02	-$0.06	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 74¢	$4.88	$4.97	+$0.1	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.36	$1.06	-$0.3	47% 1255-1396 (2651)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$30.89

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$1.4

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.3

Value

$25.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.8

Value

$25.06

PnL

-$7.73

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$12.68

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.31

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0.3

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.1

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.