Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on November 16?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 23¢ · $361 held · ends Nov 16

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$361.36

Combined PnL

-$7.16

Smart Money Entry

36.7¢ → 22.5¢

-39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$228.54

Total Shares291

Combined PnL+$71.83

No4 traders

Total Value$132.68

Total Shares530

Combined PnL-$78.99

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 38.1¢	$62.62	$121.55	+$58.93	54% 1240-1053 (2293)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 38.3¢	$236.68	$117.15	-$76.74	42% 808-1111 (1919)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 61.1¢	$61.56	$71.87	+$10.3	71% 954-392 (1346)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$12.59	$13.55	+$0.96	58% 872-632 (1504)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$10.5	$11.79	+$1.29	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 25.3¢	$12.74	$11.33	-$1.41	52% 959-896 (1855)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 72.5¢	$6.05	$6.47	+$0.42	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$3.39	$3.31	-$0.08	50% 932-930 (1862)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$2.81	$2.59	-$0.22	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$2.22	$1.61	-$0.61	57% 851-641 (1492)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$62.62

Value

$121.55

PnL

+$58.93

Record

54%

1240-1053 (2293)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$236.68

Value

$117.15

PnL

-$76.74

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.56

Value

$71.87

PnL

+$10.3

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.59

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$0.96

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.5

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$1.29

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$12.74

Value

$11.33

PnL

-$1.41

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.05

Value

$6.47

PnL

+$0.42

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0.61

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.