Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on November 15?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 97¢ · $499 held · ends Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$499.01

Combined PnL

-$28.3

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 96.9¢

+7% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$494.25

Total Shares529

Combined PnL-$16.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.76

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$12.28

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 89.7¢	$109.13	$101.69	-$7.44	47% 1212-1372 (2584)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$73.94	$75.14	+$2.3	52% 917-858 (1775)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$58.56	$58.39	-$0.17	42% 5184-7017 (12201)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$53.38	$55	+$1.62	50% 895-904 (1799)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$49.17	$50.26	+$1.09	47% 872-965 (1837)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$35.28	$35.72	+$0.44	71% 920-377 (1297)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$39.1	$35.04	-$0.84	24% 767-2452 (3219)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$19.5	$19.46	-$0.04	28% 3272-8320 (11592)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$15.18	$12.18	-$3	58% 840-598 (1438)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$20.16	$12.16	-$1.35	52% 2230-2031 (4261)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$15.15	$12.15	-$2.99	59% 844-575 (1419)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$15.1	$12.11	-$2.98	52% 883-806 (1689)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$28.6	$9.8	+$1.19	65% 4359-2378 (6737)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$8.99	$5.14	-$3.86	42% 763-1074 (1837)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.9¢	$14.41	$3.86	-$10.55	49% 828-851 (1679)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$2.63	$0.9	-$1.73	57% 812-617 (1429)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$109.13

Value

$101.69

PnL

-$7.44

Record

47%

1212-1372 (2584)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$73.94

Value

$75.14

PnL

+$2.3

Record

52%

917-858 (1775)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$58.56

Value

$58.39

PnL

-$0.17

Record

42%

5184-7017 (12201)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$53.38

Value

$55

PnL

+$1.62

Record

50%

895-904 (1799)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$49.17

Value

$50.26

PnL

+$1.09

Record

47%

872-965 (1837)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$35.28

Value

$35.72

PnL

+$0.44

Record

71%

920-377 (1297)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$39.1

Value

$35.04

PnL

-$0.84

Record

24%

767-2452 (3219)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$0.04

Record

28%

3272-8320 (11592)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$15.18

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$3

Record

58%

840-598 (1438)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.16

Value

$12.16

PnL

-$1.35

Record

52%

2230-2031 (4261)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$15.15

Value

$12.15

PnL

-$2.99

Record

59%

844-575 (1419)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.1

Value

$12.11

PnL

-$2.98

Record

52%

883-806 (1689)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$28.6

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$1.19

Record

65%

4359-2378 (6737)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$8.99

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$3.86

Record

42%

763-1074 (1837)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.41

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$10.55

Record

49%

828-851 (1679)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.63

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$1.73

Record

57%

812-617 (1429)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.