Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $34 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$34.2

Combined PnL

-$40.55

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$33.98

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares449

Combined PnL-$40.57

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$33.96	$33.98	+$0.02	99% 1213-13 (1226)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.04	$0.08	-$13.96	55% 1089-876 (1965)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.15	$0.07	-$13.08	31% 146-327 (473)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.2	$0.03	-$6.16	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.55	$0.01	-$2.53	63% 716-429 (1145)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.02	$0.01	-$1.02	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0	-$0.19	27% 673-1791 (2464)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$33.96

Value

$33.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.04

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$13.96

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.15

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.08

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.16

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.53

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.02

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

PnL

-$0.19

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.