Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $59 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$58.64

Combined PnL

-$32.65

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$57.88

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.75

Total Shares386

Combined PnL-$32.68

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.2	$20.2	+$0	58% 684-501 (1185)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.98	+$0.02	39% 220-343 (563)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.19	$14.19	-$0	49% 736-769 (1505)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.5	$3.51	+$0.01	99% 1213-13 (1226)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.04	$0.31	-$13.73	55% 1089-876 (1965)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.15	$0.29	-$12.87	31% 146-327 (473)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.2	$0.14	-$6.06	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.01	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.01	51% 746-711 (1457)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

220-343 (563)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.19

Value

$14.19

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.04

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$13.73

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.15

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$12.87

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$6.06

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.