Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on November 14?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 79¢ · $436 held · ends Nov 14

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$436.26

Combined PnL

$27.97

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 78.8¢

-13% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$428.65

Total Shares466

Combined PnL+$27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.62

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.97

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.2¢	$202.24	$186.91	-$4.27	40% 620-939 (1559)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$89.49	$80.49	+$10.41	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 83.7¢	$186.78	$63.1	+$21.87	55% 1088-874 (1962)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$32.82	$32.37	-$0.46	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$19.97	$19.37	-$0.6	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$18.72	$18.29	-$0.43	39% 216-342 (558)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$17.16	$10.61	+$0.38	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$5.71	$5.9	+$0.19	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$4.59	$5	+$0.41	13% 76-495 (571)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$4.66	$4.57	-$0.09	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$4.39	$4.27	-$0.12	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$3.77	$3.66	-$0.1	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$0.94	$1.72	+$0.78	49% 731-768 (1499)

241532532432

Invested

$202.24

Value

$186.91

PnL

-$4.27

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$89.49

Value

$80.49

PnL

+$10.41

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$186.78

Value

$63.1

PnL

+$21.87

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$32.82

Value

$32.37

PnL

-$0.46

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$19.97

Value

$19.37

PnL

-$0.6

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$18.72

Value

$18.29

PnL

-$0.43

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.16

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0.19

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

PnL

+$0.41

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$0.09

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.78

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.7%

78.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.