Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 14?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 24¢ · $461 held · ends Nov 14

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$460.67

Combined PnL

$69.42

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 23.8¢

-62% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$421.14

Total Shares621

Combined PnL+$37.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$39.52

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$32.01

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 62.7¢	$367.96	$351.2	+$45.21	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 28.1¢	$43.68	$28.55	+$25.37	40% 620-939 (1559)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$19.53	$18.44	+$0.36	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$20.09	$14.79	-$5.3	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$13.51	$11.56	-$1.95	39% 216-342 (558)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$4.34	$10.97	+$6.63	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$9.35	$10.01	+$0.66	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$6.49	$6.09	-$0.4	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 50.3¢	$4.2	$3.52	-$0.68	48% 757-814 (1571)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$3.44	$3.39	-$0.06	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 50.4¢	$2.58	$2.16	-$0.42	51% 742-710 (1452)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$367.96

Value

$351.2

PnL

+$45.21

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.68

Value

$28.55

PnL

+$25.37

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$19.53

Value

$18.44

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$20.09

Value

$14.79

PnL

-$5.3

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$13.51

Value

$11.56

PnL

-$1.95

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.34

Value

$10.97

PnL

+$6.63

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$9.35

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$6.49

Value

$6.09

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$0.68

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.42

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.7%

23.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$288.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

388.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.