Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on November 14?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $204 held · ends Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$204.34

Combined PnL

$121.83

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$142.64

Total Shares274

Combined PnL+$87.5

No9 traders

Total Value$61.69

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$34.33

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.04	$73.06	+$59.02	55% 1088-874 (1962)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.09	$26.24	+$28.79	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.9¢	$42.49	$25.47	-$1.07	72% 823-323 (1146)
Haradwaith	Noavg 65.5¢	$147.53	$23.23	+$46.96	31% 146-327 (473)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 64¢	$72.92	$13.9	-$8.82	40% 620-939 (1559)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$11.3	$11.31	+$0.01	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 50.4¢	$10.07	$8.04	-$2.03	39% 216-342 (558)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$5.93	$4.59	-$1.34	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.7¢	$3.4	$4.1	+$0.7	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$4.16	$3.94	-$0.22	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$3.37	$3.25	-$0.12	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.7¢	$2.41	$2.46	+$0.04	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$2.24	$2.24	+$0	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$1.71	$1.65	-$0.06	58% 679-500 (1179)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 41.8¢	$0.88	$0.85	-$0.03	27% 667-1774 (2441)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.04

Value

$73.06

PnL

+$59.02

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.09

Value

$26.24

PnL

+$28.79

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.49

Value

$25.47

PnL

-$1.07

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

Haradwaith

Invested

$147.53

Value

$23.23

PnL

+$46.96

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$72.92

Value

$13.9

PnL

-$8.82

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.3

Value

$11.31

PnL

+$0.01

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$8.04

PnL

-$2.03

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.93

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$1.34

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.16

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.22

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.