Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$75.09

Combined PnL

$2.88

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$48.01

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$4.9

Yes4 traders

Total Value$27.07

Total Shares498

Combined PnL-$2.02

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 82¢	$33.96	$21.38	+$3.5	13% 76-495 (571)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.4¢	$64.88	$13.91	-$5.66	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.04	$10.35	-$3.69	55% 1088-874 (1962)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 70¢	$7	$9.44	+$2.44	39% 216-342 (558)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$6.9	$7.16	+$0.25	72% 823-323 (1146)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85¢	$11.59	$5.25	-$1.29	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$4.79	$4.79	+$0	51% 742-710 (1452)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$81.36	$2.78	+$4.98	40% 620-939 (1559)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$20.48	$0.03	+$2.36	65% 4289-2310 (6599)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$33.96

Value

$21.38

PnL

+$3.5

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.88

Value

$13.91

PnL

-$5.66

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.04

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$3.69

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

Value

$9.44

PnL

+$2.44

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.25

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.59

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$1.29

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.36

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$4.98

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.48

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$2.36

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.