Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $38 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$38.21

Combined PnL

-$35.99

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$35.63

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$2.05

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.58

Total Shares429

Combined PnL-$33.94

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$29.95	$23.83	-$1.4	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$9.95	$9.43	-$0.52	39% 220-343 (563)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$2.5	$2.37	-$0.13	99% 1213-13 (1226)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.04	$0.93	-$13.12	55% 1089-876 (1965)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.64	$0.64	+$0	13% 77-499 (576)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.2	$0.41	-$5.79	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.8	$0.27	-$1.53	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.55	$0.17	-$2.38	63% 716-429 (1145)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.15	$0.15	-$10.95	31% 146-327 (473)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0.01	-$0.18	27% 673-1791 (2464)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$29.95

Value

$23.83

PnL

-$1.4

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$0.52

Record

39%

220-343 (563)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.13

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.04

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$13.12

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0

Record

13%

77-499 (576)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$5.79

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$1.53

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$2.38

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$10.95

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.18

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.