Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on November 12?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $304 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$303.7

Combined PnL

-$62.76

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$303.35

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$0.45

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.35

Total Shares699

Combined PnL-$63.21

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.8¢	$302.9	$303.35	+$0.45	99% 601-5 (606)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.18	$0.16	-$29.02	47% 506-567 (1073)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.63	$0.1	-$17.53	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.89	$0.04	-$7.85	35% 512-942 (1454)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.63	$0.03	-$4.6	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.5	$0.01	-$1.49	19% 815-3564 (4379)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	37% 3439-5885 (9324)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$302.9

Value

$303.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

99%

601-5 (606)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.18

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$29.02

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.63

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$17.53

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.89

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.85

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.6

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.49

Record

19%

815-3564 (4379)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.