Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on November 12?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $230 held · ends Nov 12

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$229.66

Combined PnL

$8.63

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 99¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$228.26

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$13.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares73

Combined PnL-$5.31

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$95.68	$83.58	+$8.9	35% 386-715 (1101)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$71.2	$45.9	+$5.99	53% 806-703 (1509)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$40.34	$40.2	-$0.14	48% 477-508 (985)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.83	-$0.07	47% 4795-5410 (10205)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.09	$18.99	-$0.11	47% 510-583 (1093)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$21.48	$14.7	-$0.63	36% 506-908 (1414)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$11.52	$5.07	+$0	58% 446-318 (764)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$5.64	$0.33	-$5.31	65% 2122-1162 (3284)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.03	$0.03	-$0	12% 34-241 (275)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$95.68

Value

$83.58

PnL

+$8.9

Record

35%

386-715 (1101)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$71.2

Value

$45.9

PnL

+$5.99

Record

53%

806-703 (1509)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$40.34

Value

$40.2

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

477-508 (985)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

4795-5410 (10205)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.09

Value

$18.99

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

510-583 (1093)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$21.48

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$0.63

Record

36%

506-908 (1414)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

446-318 (764)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.64

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$5.31

Record

65%

2122-1162 (3284)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0

Record

12%

34-241 (275)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.