Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 12?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 87¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 12

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$206.2

Combined PnL

$29.93

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$108.38

Total Shares374

Combined PnL+$30.58

No7 traders

Total Value$97.82

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$0.64

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.4¢	$48.71	$64.55	+$15.84	61% 1153-751 (1904)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.1¢	$29.1	$43.83	+$14.73	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$27.31	$25.75	-$1.56	82% 46-10 (56)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$23.7	$24.88	+$1.18	77% 632-192 (824)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 77.3¢	$37.92	$15.76	+$2.84	34% 370-706 (1076)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.6	$13.6	-$4	13% 29-188 (217)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87¢	$12.12	$10.84	+$0.91	55% 729-596 (1325)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.46	$3.51	+$0.05	47% 484-554 (1038)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$3.54	$3.48	-$0.05	49% 492-514 (1006)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.71

Value

$64.55

PnL

+$15.84

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.1

Value

$43.83

PnL

+$14.73

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$27.31

Value

$25.75

PnL

-$1.56

Record

82%

46-10 (56)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

$24.88

PnL

+$1.18

Record

77%

632-192 (824)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$37.92

Value

$15.76

PnL

+$2.84

Record

34%

370-706 (1076)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$4

Record

13%

29-188 (217)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.12

Value

$10.84

PnL

+$0.91

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

484-554 (1038)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

492-514 (1006)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.