Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on November 12?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 53¢ · $216 held · ends Nov 12

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$215.76

Combined PnL

$70.72

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$107.3

Total Shares282

Combined PnL+$55.54

No8 traders

Total Value$108.46

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$15.18

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 31.3¢	$200.7	$78.23	+$20.66	35% 386-715 (1101)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$19.43	$29.2	+$22.27	47% 494-562 (1056)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$40.62	$26.47	+$1.47	77% 640-194 (834)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$24.32	$18.76	-$5.56	63% 440-256 (696)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$24.07	$17.05	-$6.84	53% 806-703 (1509)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.75	$17	+$17.16	36% 506-908 (1414)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$184.54	$12.07	+$17.72	65% 2122-1162 (3284)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 53¢	$6.31	$5.63	-$0.69	42% 806-1105 (1911)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 59.7¢	$26.21	$5.08	+$6.15	30% 2929-6854 (9783)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 52.9¢	$5.39	$3.72	-$1.67	48% 477-508 (985)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.49	$2.54	+$0.05	45% 492-612 (1104)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$200.7

Value

$78.23

PnL

+$20.66

Record

35%

386-715 (1101)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$19.43

Value

$29.2

PnL

+$22.27

Record

47%

494-562 (1056)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$40.62

Value

$26.47

PnL

+$1.47

Record

77%

640-194 (834)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$24.32

Value

$18.76

PnL

-$5.56

Record

63%

440-256 (696)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.07

Value

$17.05

PnL

-$6.84

Record

53%

806-703 (1509)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.75

Value

$17

PnL

+$17.16

Record

36%

506-908 (1414)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$184.54

Value

$12.07

PnL

+$17.72

Record

65%

2122-1162 (3284)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$0.69

Record

42%

806-1105 (1911)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$26.21

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$6.15

Record

30%

2929-6854 (9783)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$1.67

Record

48%

477-508 (985)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$0.05

Record

45%

492-612 (1104)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.