Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on November 12?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $732 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$732.32
-$72.28
74¢ → 83¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 75.2¢ | $527.32 | $473.3 | -$54.02 | 68% 2114-998 (3112) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $220.16 | $206.26 | -$13.9 | 34% 365-699 (1064) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $24.01 | $21.83 | -$2.18 | — 0-13 (13) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $20.3 | $20.3 | -$0 | 61% 1153-751 (1904) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $14.64 | $7.72 | -$0.29 | 55% 699-561 (1260) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $4.8 | $2.9 | -$1.9 | 13% 28-183 (211) |
Invested
$527.32
Value
$473.3
PnL
-$54.02
Record
68%
2114-998 (3112)
Invested
$220.16
Value
$206.26
PnL
-$13.9
Record
34%
365-699 (1064)
Invested
$24.01
Value
$21.83
PnL
-$2.18
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Invested
$20.3
Value
$20.3
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
1153-751 (1904)
Invested
$14.64
Value
$7.72
PnL
-$0.29
Record
55%
699-561 (1260)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$1.9
Record
13%
28-183 (211)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.