Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on November 12?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $29 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$29.39

Combined PnL

-$19.25

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$28.75

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$2.57

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.64

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$21.82

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$55.15	$28.75	+$2.57	53% 806-703 (1509)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$50.39	$0.23	-$6.16	35% 386-715 (1101)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$16.11	$0.2	-$12.87	65% 2122-1162 (3284)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.56	$0.17	-$1.29	47% 494-562 (1056)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.02	-$0.89	30% 2929-6854 (9783)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.61	$0.01	-$0.6	36% 506-908 (1414)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0	$0	+$0	12% 34-241 (275)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$55.15

Value

$28.75

PnL

+$2.57

Record

53%

806-703 (1509)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.39

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$6.16

Record

35%

386-715 (1101)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.11

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$12.87

Record

65%

2122-1162 (3284)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.56

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$1.29

Record

47%

494-562 (1056)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.89

Record

30%

2929-6854 (9783)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.6

Record

36%

506-908 (1414)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

12%

34-241 (275)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.