Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 13°C on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$3.85

Combined PnL

-$63.21

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$3.5

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.35

Total Shares699

Combined PnL-$63.21

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 601-5 (606)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.18	$0.16	-$29.02	47% 506-567 (1073)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.63	$0.1	-$17.53	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.89	$0.04	-$7.85	35% 512-942 (1454)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.63	$0.03	-$4.6	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.5	$0.01	-$1.49	19% 815-3564 (4379)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	37% 3439-5885 (9324)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

601-5 (606)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.18

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$29.02

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.63

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$17.53

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.89

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.85

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.6

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.49

Record

19%

815-3564 (4379)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.