Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $167 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$166.92
$0.14
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $66.27 | $66.41 | +$0.13 | 99% 212-1 (213) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $37.95 | $37.94 | -$0 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $32.55 | $32.53 | -$0.02 | 45% 306-367 (673) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.98 | +$0.06 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | -$0 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.1 | $0.08 | -$0.03 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
Invested
$66.27
Value
$66.41
PnL
+$0.13
Record
99%
212-1 (213)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37.95
Value
$37.94
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$32.55
Value
$32.53
PnL
-$0.02
Record
45%
306-367 (673)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.03
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.