Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 11?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$214.25
$2.79
96.2¢ → 98.2¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $70.45 | $71.35 | +$0.9 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $52.09 | $54.01 | +$1.92 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $36.46 | $36.9 | +$0.44 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $19.74 | $19.42 | -$0.32 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $19.58 | $19.42 | -$0.16 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $9.64 | $9.71 | +$0.07 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $3.5 | $3.44 | -$0.06 | 99% 212-1 (213) |
Invested
$70.45
Value
$71.35
PnL
+$0.9
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$52.09
Value
$54.01
PnL
+$1.92
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$36.46
Value
$36.9
PnL
+$0.44
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.74
Value
$19.42
PnL
-$0.32
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$19.42
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$9.64
Value
$9.71
PnL
+$0.07
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.44
PnL
-$0.06
Record
99%
212-1 (213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.