Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$286.45
$7.85
91.4¢ → 95.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $238.22 | $245.92 | +$7.7 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $18.9 | +$0.1 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $11.86 | $11.46 | +$0.31 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $5.5 | $6.07 | +$0.57 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $4.92 | $4.1 | -$0.82 | 15% 15-83 (98) |
Invested
$238.22
Value
$245.92
PnL
+$7.7
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$18.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$11.86
Value
$11.46
PnL
+$0.31
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$6.07
PnL
+$0.57
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$0.82
Record
15%
15-83 (98)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.