Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 82¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$307.81
$48.58
73.9¢ → 81.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 70.7¢ | $189.36 | $233.21 | +$43.85 | 28% 213-547 (760) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $41.42 | $42.38 | +$0.96 | 69% 2060-945 (3005) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.6 | $17.6 | +$2 | 53% 5440-4884 (10324) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $9.4 | $9.07 | -$0.33 | 84% 486-96 (582) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $10.4 | $4.62 | +$2.1 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.92 | $0.92 | +$0 | 13% 16-109 (125) |
Invested
$189.36
Value
$233.21
PnL
+$43.85
Record
28%
213-547 (760)
Invested
$41.42
Value
$42.38
PnL
+$0.96
Record
69%
2060-945 (3005)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
5440-4884 (10324)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.07
PnL
-$0.33
Record
84%
486-96 (582)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$4.62
PnL
+$2.1
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.92
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
16-109 (125)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.