Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on November 11?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 59¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 11

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$187.1

Combined PnL

-$30.23

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 59¢

-14% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$86.85

Total Shares346

Combined PnL-$29.55

No9 traders

Total Value$100.26

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$0.67

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$99.65	$71.79	-$27.86	30% 246-584 (830)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$29.52	$26.6	-$2.92	37% 3112-5362 (8474)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$37.94	$15.74	+$0.67	54% 401-336 (737)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$16.75	$15.06	-$1.69	69% 2062-948 (3010)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 63¢	$12.6	$14	+$1.4	50% 4584-4495 (9079)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 61¢	$12.2	$14	+$1.8	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 70¢	$13.99	$12.69	-$1.3	12% 18-127 (145)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.8	$7	-$0.8	30% 2638-6194 (8832)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.3	$3.55	+$0.25	40% 329-494 (823)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.95	$3.5	+$0.55	82% 516-115 (631)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.18	-$0.33	66% 4092-2111 (6203)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.65

Value

$71.79

PnL

-$27.86

Record

30%

246-584 (830)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$29.52

Value

$26.6

PnL

-$2.92

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.94

Value

$15.74

PnL

+$0.67

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.75

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$1.69

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$14

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

4584-4495 (9079)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$14

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$13.99

Value

$12.69

PnL

-$1.3

Record

12%

18-127 (145)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

PnL

-$0.8

Record

30%

2638-6194 (8832)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.25

Record

40%

329-494 (823)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.55

Record

82%

516-115 (631)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$0.33

Record

66%

4092-2111 (6203)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.