Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 14°C on November 11?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $230 held · ends Nov 11

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$230.31

Combined PnL

-$29.99

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 97¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$113.66

Total Shares118

Combined PnL+$8.11

Yes1 trader

Total Value$29.55

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$38.1

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$147.13	$87.1	-$60.03	29% 237-575 (812)
└ No leg	Noavg 91.7¢	$57.82	$58.61	+$0.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.9¢	$89.31	$28.49	-$60.82
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$36.72	$36.96	+$0.23	37% 3085-5357 (8442)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$67.65	$29.55	-$38.1	69% 2062-948 (3010)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$17.65	$18.83	+$1.17	54% 383-321 (704)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 71¢	$14.2	$18.6	+$4.4	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$14.77	$16.3	+$1.53	82% 506-111 (617)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.73	-$0.08	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.57	$4.72	+$0.15	45% 273-328 (601)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.31	$4.72	+$0.4	44% 286-362 (648)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 86¢	$3.53	$3.81	+$0.29	39% 624-957 (1581)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$147.13

Value

$87.1

PnL

-$60.03

Record

29%

237-575 (812)

Both legs:

No$57.8291.7¢+$0.79

Yes$89.3121.9¢-$60.82

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$36.72

Value

$36.96

PnL

+$0.23

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.65

Value

$29.55

PnL

-$38.1

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.65

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$1.17

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$4.4

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.77

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$1.53

Record

82%

506-111 (617)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.73

PnL

-$0.08

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0.4

Record

44%

286-362 (648)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.29

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.