Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on November 10?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$101.91

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.1¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$101.88

Total Shares103

Combined PnL+$1

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares4

Combined PnL-$0.01

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$32.25	$32.15	-$0.1	34% 150-294 (444)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$22.83	$22.99	+$0.16	35% 2848-5314 (8162)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$19.1	$19.84	+$0.74	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$12.1	$12.06	-$0.04	28% 153-400 (553)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$7.19	$7.39	+$0.2	52% 210-197 (407)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$4.91	$4.96	+$0.04	90% 28-3 (31)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	100% 93-0 (93)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.04	$0.03	-$0.01	35% 138-259 (397)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$32.25

Value

$32.15

PnL

-$0.1

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$22.83

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$0.16

Record

35%

2848-5314 (8162)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.1

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$0.74

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$12.1

Value

$12.06

PnL

-$0.04

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.19

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

210-197 (407)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

90%

28-3 (31)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

100%

93-0 (93)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.