Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 10?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$427.77
-$23.7
90.4¢ → 89.3¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $338.12 | $315.67 | -$22.46 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $83.33 | $84.09 | +$0.76 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $21.16 | $20.14 | -$1.02 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $4.63 | $4.51 | -$0.12 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.51 | $2.47 | +$0.96 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $6.63 | $0.9 | -$1.82 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$338.12
Value
$315.67
PnL
-$22.46
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$83.33
Value
$84.09
PnL
+$0.76
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$21.16
Value
$20.14
PnL
-$1.02
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$4.51
PnL
-$0.12
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.51
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$0.96
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$6.63
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$1.82
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.