Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on November 10?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 55¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 10

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$164

Combined PnL

$36.03

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$122.84

Total Shares198

Combined PnL+$48.09

No6 traders

Total Value$41.19

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$12.06

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$74.75	$122.84	+$48.09	21% 132-485 (617)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 59.9¢	$27.42	$22.46	-$4.96	89% 409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$14.88	$8.82	-$6.06	35% 2848-5314 (8162)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 42¢	$3.78	$4.16	+$0.38	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.14	$1.93	-$0.2	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.87	$1.92	-$0.96	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.9	-$0.25	30% 174-414 (588)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$74.75

Value

$122.84

PnL

+$48.09

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$27.42

Value

$22.46

PnL

-$4.96

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$14.88

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$6.06

Record

35%

2848-5314 (8162)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.38

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.14

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.96

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.25

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.