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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on November 1?

Resolved Yes. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

No 67%

Total Value

$41.8

Combined PnL

-$292.96

Smart Money Signal

No

7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$41.8

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$39.29

No7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares409

Combined PnL-$332.25

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.51	$41.8	+$39.29	53% 6690-5888 (12578)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 81.1¢	$304.53	—	-$304.53	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 92¢	$27.72	—	-$27.72	54% 467-391 (858)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	—	—	+$0	61% 21345-13642 (34987)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	—	—	+$0	50% 1908-1873 (3781)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	—	—	+$0	50% 673-674 (1347)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 34.9¢	—	—	+$0	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 55¢	—	—	+$0	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	—	—	+$0	18% 365-1641 (2006)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.51

Value

$41.8

PnL

+$39.29

Record

53%

6690-5888 (12578)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$304.53

Value

—

PnL

-$304.53

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$27.72

Value

—

PnL

-$27.72

Record

54%

467-391 (858)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

21345-13642 (34987)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1908-1873 (3781)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

365-1641 (2006)

Smart Money Signal

No

7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xef92fe38...a7750a

Slug

highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-november-1-2026-20c

Traders in this Market

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes — $41.8

241532532432

No — $0

HellYeahTrader

No — $0

balthazar

No — $0

hello.67

No — $0

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

No — $0

ghorrock

No — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes — $0

Istaroth

No — $0

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