Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on October 29?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 91¢ · $425 held · ends Oct 29

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$424.67

Combined PnL

-$8.53

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$353.8

Total Shares392

Combined PnL-$1.57

Yes4 traders

Total Value$70.86

Total Shares835

Combined PnL-$6.96

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 90.5¢	$355.37	$353.8	-$1.57	60% 1624-1083 (2707)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$62.56	$59.87	-$2.69	51% 596-562 (1158)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$11.16	$7.07	-$4.09	50% 1675-1660 (3335)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$3.3	$3.17	-$0.13	55% 287-239 (526)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.8	$0.75	-$0.05	53% 6354-5570 (11924)

241532532432

Invested

$355.37

Value

$353.8

PnL

-$1.57

Record

60%

1624-1083 (2707)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.56

Value

$59.87

PnL

-$2.69

Record

51%

596-562 (1158)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.16

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$4.09

Record

50%

1675-1660 (3335)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

287-239 (526)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

6354-5570 (11924)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.