Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 80¢ · $797 held · ends Oct 29

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$796.92

Combined PnL

-$17.09

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 79.5¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$777.86

Total Shares887

Combined PnL-$24.21

Yes2 traders

Total Value$19.06

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$7.12

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 71.3¢	$602.88	$586.7	-$16.18	51% 577-548 (1125)
Istaroth	Noavg 71¢	$196.55	$175.86	-$6.71	29% 280-697 (977)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$9.87	$17.21	+$7.34	50% 1640-1625 (3265)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$16.63	$15.31	-$1.32	57% 13006-9921 (22927)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$2.07	$1.85	-$0.22	61% 1566-1014 (2580)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$602.88

Value

$586.7

PnL

-$16.18

Record

51%

577-548 (1125)

Istaroth

Invested

$196.55

Value

$175.86

PnL

-$6.71

Record

29%

280-697 (977)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.87

Value

$17.21

PnL

+$7.34

Record

50%

1640-1625 (3265)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.63

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$1.32

Record

57%

13006-9921 (22927)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.22

Record

61%

1566-1014 (2580)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.