Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 29?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 1.4¢ · $869 held · ended Oct 29

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$869.25

Combined PnL

$531.52

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 1.4¢

-98% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$748.64

Total Shares1,037

Combined PnL+$573.12

No3 traders

Total Value$120.61

Total Shares223

Combined PnL-$41.6

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 9.1¢	$62.56	$609.05	+$546.49	51% 602-578 (1180)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 92.1¢	$106.46	$111.24	+$4.78	55% 320-260 (580)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 19.8¢	$79.93	$106.97	+$27.03	60% 1670-1125 (2795)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 60.4¢	$33.34	$32.62	-$0.41	23% 287-958 (1245)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 7.1¢	$0.71	$6.4	+$5.69	53% 6405-5609 (12014)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$82.55	$2.97	-$52.07	57% 13341-10198 (23539)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$62.56

Value

$609.05

PnL

+$546.49

Record

51%

602-578 (1180)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$106.46

Value

$111.24

PnL

+$4.78

Record

55%

320-260 (580)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$79.93

Value

$106.97

PnL

+$27.03

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.34

Value

$32.62

PnL

-$0.41

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.71

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$5.69

Record

53%

6405-5609 (12014)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$82.55

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$52.07

Record

57%

13341-10198 (23539)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3957.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

4057.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.