Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on October 28?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 13¢ · $272 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$271.6
-$56.86
28.8¢ → 13¢
-55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 80.3¢ | $139.15 | $156.91 | +$17.77 | 55% 239-197 (436) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $126.79 | $76.23 | -$50.56 | 46% 567-659 (1226) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.9¢ | $19.98 | $22.84 | +$2.86 | 57% 12984-9900 (22884) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $42 | $13.82 | -$24.22 | 29% 279-667 (946) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $4.2 | $1.8 | -$2.7 | 61% 1552-1005 (2557) |
Invested
$139.15
Value
$156.91
PnL
+$17.77
Record
55%
239-197 (436)
Invested
$126.79
Value
$76.23
PnL
-$50.56
Record
46%
567-659 (1226)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$22.84
PnL
+$2.86
Record
57%
12984-9900 (22884)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$42
Value
$13.82
PnL
-$24.22
Record
29%
279-667 (946)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$2.7
Record
61%
1552-1005 (2557)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.