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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 36°C or higher on November 9?

Resolved No. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

11

No 25%

Total Value

$305

Combined PnL

-$36.5

Smart Money Signal

No

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders
Total Value$305
Total Shares305
Combined PnL+$0.35
Yes7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares478
Combined PnL-$36.85
No — 36%Yes — 64%
1D
1DVSBSTD
No

Invested

$305

Value

$305

PnL

+$0.35

Record

100%

30-0 (30)

0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$35.64

Value

—

PnL

-$35.64

Record

0%

0-29 (29)

24
241532532432CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

—

PnL

-$1.08

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

0X
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

—

PnL

-$0.13

Record

28%

55-139 (194)

0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

51-81 (132)

QW
qwen300.fund<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

0X
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

42-50 (92)

0X
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

LU
luciebot<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

53-16 (69)

0X
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

GH
ghorrockCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x25f884db...ec1a9f
Slug
highest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-november-9-2026-36corhigher

Traders in this Market

1D

1DVSBSTD

No — $305

+$0.35
0X

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

CTR

Yes — $0

-$35.64
24

241532532432

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.08
0X

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.13
0X

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

+$0
QW

qwen300.fund

No — $0

+$0
0X

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
0X

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
LU

luciebot

No — $0

+$0
0X

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
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