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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 34°C on November 9?

Resolved No. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

14

No 50%

Total Value

$44.07

Combined PnL

-$34.57

Smart Money Signal

No

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$44.07

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$1.85

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares405

Combined PnL-$36.42

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$27.98	$27.98	+$0.29	56% 47-37 (84)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$14.54	$16.09	+$1.55	53% 86-75 (161)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$35.64	—	-$35.64	0% 0-29 (29)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.78	—	-$0.78	55% 29-24 (53)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	—	—	+$0	39% 51-81 (132)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	—	—	+$0	80% 61-15 (76)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	No	—	—	+$0	28% 55-139 (194)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	—	—	+$0	44% 46-59 (105)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82¢	—	—	+$0	42% 16-22 (38)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	—	—	+$0	77% 53-16 (69)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	—	—	+$0	68% 43-20 (63)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	—	—	+$0	— 2-16 (18)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	—	—	+$0	43% 34-45 (79)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 90¢	—	—	+$0	— 0-14 (14)

Invested

$27.98

Value

$27.98

PnL

+$0.29

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

Invested

$14.54

Value

$16.09

PnL

+$1.55

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$35.64

Value

—

PnL

-$35.64

Record

0%

0-29 (29)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$0.78

Value

—

PnL

-$0.78

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

51-81 (132)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

55-139 (194)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

53-16 (69)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

—

2-16 (18)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0-14 (14)

Smart Money Signal

No

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6d75262f...3c27f8

Slug

highest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-november-9-2026-34c

Traders in this Market

balthazar

No — $27.98

ghorrock

No — $16.09

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes — $0

241532532432

Yes — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

No — $0

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $0

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

No — $0

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

No — $0

luciebot

No — $0

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