Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 32°C on November 9?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 22¢ · $105 held · ends Nov 9

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$105.2

Combined PnL

-$1.09

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$63.94

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$31.32

No6 traders

Total Value$41.26

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$32.41

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$13.13	$24.12	+$10.99	25% 2367-7044 (9411)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 57.6¢	$33.25	$21.19	-$6.31	57% 25439-18984 (44423)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 23.2¢	$12.7	$18.7	+$6	57% 923-700 (1623)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$2.47	$15.41	+$12.94	20% 978-3834 (4812)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$37.29	$14.52	-$22.77	55% 26053-21346 (47399)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$3.4	$3.91	+$0.52	46% 6200-7408 (13608)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$0.92	$1.8	+$0.88	53% 5084-4444 (9528)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$2.32	$1.77	-$0.54	47% 47626-54178 (101804)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$1.79	$1.51	-$0.28	46% 6649-7790 (14439)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.58	$1.22	-$2.36	52% 9072-8290 (17362)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.19	$1.04	-$0.15	46% 6902-8164 (15066)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.13

Value

$24.12

PnL

+$10.99

Record

25%

2367-7044 (9411)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$33.25

Value

$21.19

PnL

-$6.31

Record

57%

25439-18984 (44423)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.7

Value

$18.7

PnL

+$6

Record

57%

923-700 (1623)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.47

Value

$15.41

PnL

+$12.94

Record

20%

978-3834 (4812)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$37.29

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$22.77

Record

55%

26053-21346 (47399)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$0.52

Record

46%

6200-7408 (13608)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

5084-4444 (9528)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$2.32

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.54

Record

47%

47626-54178 (101804)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$0.28

Record

46%

6649-7790 (14439)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$3.58

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$2.36

Record

52%

9072-8290 (17362)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

6902-8164 (15066)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.