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IstarothCTR<$100YesNoNoNoNoYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on November 8?
Resolved No. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$3.12
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares12
Combined PnL-$3.12
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 29%No — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $3.12 | — | -$3.12 | 13% 675-4577 (5252) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6878-8119 (14997) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 65.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 65477-65792 (131269) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 25544-21102 (46646) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 25% 2354-7013 (9367) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 5069-4422 (9491) |
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
—
PnL
-$3.12
Record
13%
675-4577 (5252)
0X
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6878-8119 (14997)
CI
cigarettes<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
65477-65792 (131269)
GR
graynotebook19<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
25544-21102 (46646)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
2354-7013 (9367)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
BI
Bilberry<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5069-4422 (9491)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf901f7d9...517b03
Slug
highest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-november-8-2026-27c