Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on November 8?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $758 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$757.7
$61.28
79¢ → 88.5¢
+12% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 76.4¢ | $386.05 | $459.89 | +$48.2 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $76.37 | $90.35 | +$7.94 | 32% 2247-4752 (6999) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $45.53 | $44.69 | -$0.84 | 41% 2520-3700 (6220) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $42.99 | $40.76 | -$0.02 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $32.56 | $38.52 | +$3.81 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $31.5 | $30.98 | -$0.52 | 46% 10314-12253 (22567) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27 | $26.55 | -$0.45 | 46% 3898-4513 (8411) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $18.2 | +$3.4 | 53% 24342-21404 (45746) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $8 | $7.76 | -$0.24 | 47% 2105-2397 (4502) |
Invested
$386.05
Value
$459.89
PnL
+$48.2
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$76.37
Value
$90.35
PnL
+$7.94
Record
32%
2247-4752 (6999)
Invested
$45.53
Value
$44.69
PnL
-$0.84
Record
41%
2520-3700 (6220)
Invested
$42.99
Value
$40.76
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$32.56
Value
$38.52
PnL
+$3.81
Record
53%
4144-3712 (7856)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$30.98
PnL
-$0.52
Record
46%
10314-12253 (22567)
Invested
$27
Value
$26.55
PnL
-$0.45
Record
46%
3898-4513 (8411)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$3.4
Record
53%
24342-21404 (45746)
Invested
$8
Value
$7.76
PnL
-$0.24
Record
47%
2105-2397 (4502)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98
No — $459.89
hello.67
No — $90.35
123987456
No — $44.69
ghorrock
No — $40.76
Bilberry
No — $38.52
smallreceipt
No — $30.98
haveagoodday
No — $26.55
cigarettes
No — $18.2
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $7.76