Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on November 7?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $1 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$0.52
-$45.03
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.26 | $0.26 | -$0.35 | 53% 4566-4056 (8622) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $31.9 | $0.24 | -$42 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$2.68 | 43% 10700-14195 (24895) |
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
4566-4056 (8622)
Invested
$31.9
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$42
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.68
Record
43%
10700-14195 (24895)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.