Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 7?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $30 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$29.75
-$40.56
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $23.49 | $23.49 | +$0 | 39% 1311-2070 (3381) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | -$0 | 97% 476-14 (490) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | No | $1.81 | $1.81 | +$0 | 53% 4656-4095 (8751) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $31.9 | $0.96 | -$40.56 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
Invested
$23.49
Value
$23.49
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1311-2070 (3381)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$0
Record
97%
476-14 (490)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.81
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4656-4095 (8751)
Invested
$31.9
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$40.56
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.