Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on November 2?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $152 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$151.72
$7.5
92.3¢ → 97.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 90¢ | $98.91 | $101.77 | +$7.34 | 50% 2032-1997 (4029) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $24.97 | $25.41 | +$0.43 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $19.71 | $19.5 | -$0.21 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $5.1 | $5.04 | -$0.06 | 56% 3732-2932 (6664) |
Invested
$98.91
Value
$101.77
PnL
+$7.34
Record
50%
2032-1997 (4029)
Invested
$24.97
Value
$25.41
PnL
+$0.43
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
Invested
$19.71
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$0.21
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.06
Record
56%
3732-2932 (6664)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.