Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on November 2?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 88¢ · $78 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$78.47
$0.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $38.99 | $36.87 | -$2.12 | 56% 14488-11246 (25734) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $10.22 | $12 | +$1.77 | 58% 1975-1416 (3391) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.6 | $8.75 | +$0.15 | — |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $6.24 | $6.96 | +$0.72 | 18% 381-1768 (2149) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.77 | $4.86 | +$0.08 | — |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $4.73 | $4.75 | +$0.03 | 51% 1968-1918 (3886) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.32 | $4.29 | -$0.03 | — |
Invested
$38.99
Value
$36.87
PnL
-$2.12
Record
56%
14488-11246 (25734)
Invested
$10.22
Value
$12
PnL
+$1.77
Record
58%
1975-1416 (3391)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$0.15
Record
—
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.96
PnL
+$0.72
Record
18%
381-1768 (2149)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.77
Value
$4.86
PnL
+$0.08
Record
—
Invested
$4.73
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
1968-1918 (3886)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.29
PnL
-$0.03
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.