Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on November 15?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $200 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$199.68

Combined PnL

$31.03

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 99.3¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$135.28

Total Shares135

Combined PnL+$3.74

Yes4 traders

Total Value$64.4

Total Shares463

Combined PnL+$27.29

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$59.95	$60.19	+$0.24	47% 887-1007 (1894)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$24.33	$48.72	+$24.39	43% 56-75 (131)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$36	$39.28	+$3.28	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$23.2	$23.3	+$0.09	52% 909-844 (1753)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$12.39	$12.52	+$0.13	99% 1609-24 (1633)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$5.04	$9.86	+$4.82	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.24	$5.8	+$1.28	50% 919-925 (1844)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.58	$0.02	-$3.2	42% 5212-7125 (12337)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$59.95

Value

$60.19

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.33

Value

$48.72

PnL

+$24.39

Record

43%

56-75 (131)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$39.28

PnL

+$3.28

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$23.2

Value

$23.3

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.39

Value

$12.52

PnL

+$0.13

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.04

Value

$9.86

PnL

+$4.82

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.24

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.58

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.2

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.