Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on November 15?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 99¢ · $229 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$228.58

Combined PnL

$19.7

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 99.4¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$145.48

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$12.35

Yes5 traders

Total Value$82.35

Total Shares236

Combined PnL+$7.36

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$46.91	$46.91	+$0	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 79¢	$24.71	$30.88	+$6.18	53% 2352-2120 (4472)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$30.31	$27.39	-$2.92	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$23.86	$23.86	+$0	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$23.77	$23.77	+$0	60% 874-593 (1467)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.2¢	$25.43	$23.56	-$1.87	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$157.3	$21.03	+$4.91	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3	$9.93	+$6.93	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 37.1¢	$3.71	$9.88	+$6.17	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$5.1	$5.1	+$0	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$5.08	$5.08	+$0	51% 945-892 (1837)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.13	$0.44	+$0.3	24% 788-2560 (3348)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$46.91

Value

$46.91

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$24.71

Value

$30.88

PnL

+$6.18

Record

53%

2352-2120 (4472)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.31

Value

$27.39

PnL

-$2.92

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$23.86

Value

$23.86

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

$23.77

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.43

Value

$23.56

PnL

-$1.87

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$157.3

Value

$21.03

PnL

+$4.91

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$6.93

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$3.71

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$6.17

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.3

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.