Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on November 15?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 0.9¢ · $22 held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$22.31

Combined PnL

-$45.29

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$22.31

Total Shares329

Combined PnL-$45.29

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 35.3¢	$20.38	$19.42	-$0.95	71% 950-388 (1338)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 62.7¢	$46.21	$0.74	-$45.48	43% 56-75 (131)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.68	$0.68	+$0	47% 887-1007 (1894)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 53.9¢	$75.65	$0.4	-$15.94	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 1.5¢	$0.44	$0.3	-$0.14	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$9.5	$0.2	-$9.29	49% 854-884 (1738)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$0.26	$0.2	-$0.06	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$5.75	$0.09	-$5.66	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$0.1	$0.08	-$0.02	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$0.09	$0.05	-$0.04	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$0.07	$0.05	-$0.02	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$0.07	$0.05	-$0.02	52% 909-844 (1753)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$0.44	$0.04	+$32.33	42% 5212-7125 (12337)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$20.38

Value

$19.42

PnL

-$0.95

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$46.21

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$45.48

Record

43%

56-75 (131)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$75.65

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$15.94

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$9.29

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$5.75

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$5.66

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$32.33

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4788.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4888.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.