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No
balthazarCTR<$100YesYesYesYes
Lucerys<$100No
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C or higher on November 14?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 25%
Total Value
$304.5
Combined PnL
-$11.74
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$304.5
Total Shares305
Combined PnL+$0.15
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares131
Combined PnL-$11.89
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.8¢ | $303.9 | $304.5 | +$0.6 | 99% 1425-20 (1445) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.38 | — | -$10.38 | 43% 5129-6814 (11943) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.73 | — | -$0.73 | 37% 1569-2700 (4269) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.73 | — | -$0.73 | 58% 765-561 (1326) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.06 | — | -$0.06 | 25% 730-2139 (2869) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | — | -$0.45 | 35% 3825-6979 (10804) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$303.9
Value
$304.5
PnL
+$0.6
Record
99%
1425-20 (1445)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.38
Value
—
PnL
-$10.38
Record
43%
5129-6814 (11943)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
—
PnL
-$0.73
Record
37%
1569-2700 (4269)
0X
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
—
PnL
-$0.73
Record
58%
765-561 (1326)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
—
PnL
-$0.06
Record
25%
730-2139 (2869)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
35%
3825-6979 (10804)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x39a268c7...a2170b
Slug
highest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-november-14-2026-30corhigher