Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C on November 14?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $176 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$175.72

Combined PnL

-$2.93

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 99.3¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$172.04

Total Shares178

Combined PnL-$3.54

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.6

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$0.61

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$96.67	$95.17	-$1.5	43% 5073-6616 (11689)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$70.56	$68.71	-$1.85	49% 755-800 (1555)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.78	-$0.07	52% 1709-1558 (3267)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$3.5	$3.38	-$0.12	99% 1293-18 (1311)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$1.04	$1.54	+$0.51	51% 771-729 (1500)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$1.64	$1.08	-$0.56	46% 1098-1303 (2401)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.16	$0.62	+$0.46	50% 720-711 (1431)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.16	$0.36	+$0.2	58% 725-518 (1243)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$96.67

Value

$95.17

PnL

-$1.5

Record

43%

5073-6616 (11689)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$70.56

Value

$68.71

PnL

-$1.85

Record

49%

755-800 (1555)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

1709-1558 (3267)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.12

Record

99%

1293-18 (1311)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.51

Record

51%

771-729 (1500)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.56

Record

46%

1098-1303 (2401)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.46

Record

50%

720-711 (1431)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

725-518 (1243)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.